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Emerging Technologies: Implications and Prospects of their Proliferation
Please confirm the time and date of the webinar at cisac.fsi.stanford.edu/cisac-events as dates and times may change.

Under what conditions do dual-use emerging technologies proliferate in the inter-
national system? While the fourth industrial revolution (Information and Communications
Technology revolution) is often associated with big data, I argue that emerging technologies
should also be known for their level of prominence, complexity, unparalleled connectivity,
enhanced performance, and uncertainty compared to traditional technologies. Leveraging
open-source, multi-year data consisting of about two million observations from the National
Science Foundation, arXiv, Small Business Innovation Research, and Department of Defense’s Research, Development, Test and Evaluation program, I first share an illustrative ex-
ample differentiating frontier, emerging, and mature technologies with quantum computing,
artificial intelligence, and GPS respectively. After providing conceptualizations of technologies, I then outline the conceptualization and operationalization of the outcome variable,
proliferation. Proliferation includes two stages, specifically possession and the operationality
of the emerging technology. In putting forth a novel definition of emerging technologies, this
paper includes extensive and robust empirical analysis of patents through the World Intellectual Property Organization, investment via Research, Development, Test and Evaluation,
and publications via arXiv, awards via the Small Business Innovation Research Program
and the National Science Foundation. Overall, scholarly attention to emerging technologies
is increasingly important as these innovations continue to take shape and impact the nature
of national and international security.

Dec 6, 2022 01:00 PM in Pacific Time (US and Canada)

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